> What if it just stays a niche market for 50 years?
That would still be a collapse, just a silent one. Niche market means that everybody has on some subconscious level accepted that a large stack cannot be liquidated and plays along by "hodling" so that they can continue feeling rich. This is what is eventually happening to most collector's items: trading volume drops faster than the price and before you know it, there isn't enough trading going on to regularly call out an updated market price. The last occasional buyers will happily buy at close to the price from the last time there was an active market, but potential sellers are not even trying to sell in bulk, knowing how little money they could expect. It's less frustrating to just forget about it than selling for a dime.
And it's such a fascinating term! Holding is what Warren Buffett does, after having applied his unique evaluation skills before buying, hodling is what a True Believer does. "If you are not a True Believer and cash out early, you are not deserving of eventually entering the paradise of a bitcoin bet retirement."
And to people who self-identify with the term, I think it might also be a kind of rhetorical last line of defense for when someone criticises their trust and belief: "those may be fine arguments or not, see I don't care, I HODL which means I just don't take it as serious as you. Mind your own business and let me dream my dream". Could also be motivated as a psychological hedge for the day after, "sure, it was expensive, but look at fun we had!"
As a self-identified HODLer - I like to think it's because holding isn't nearly as easy as it sounds. Ignoring what 'Mr Market' is offering you for your property on any given day and overruling your herd-following instincts is not easy, else Warren Buffet wouldn't be such an outlier.
And yes, the HODL mantra is a way of reminding myself that I shouldn't make emotional decisions in the heat of the moment.
That would still be a collapse, just a silent one. Niche market means that everybody has on some subconscious level accepted that a large stack cannot be liquidated and plays along by "hodling" so that they can continue feeling rich. This is what is eventually happening to most collector's items: trading volume drops faster than the price and before you know it, there isn't enough trading going on to regularly call out an updated market price. The last occasional buyers will happily buy at close to the price from the last time there was an active market, but potential sellers are not even trying to sell in bulk, knowing how little money they could expect. It's less frustrating to just forget about it than selling for a dime.