If you were right that nuke count doesn't matter then the U.S. and the USSR would never have built thousands of nukes.
QED
But still, you'll persist, so let's think it through.
Let's say that NK has 3 nukes. Let's say the U.S. has 1,000. Let's say all 1,003 nukes have the same yield, let's say 400K tons of TNT. And let's say both countries have ICBMs and can deliver all their nukes anywhere in the world in ~30 minutes.
Now let's say that NK strikes first and its warheads somehow get past U.S. missile defenses (maybe three nukes is what they have after missile defense). That's about 1% of the U.S. population dead. (Aside: the U.S. thenceforth will never again allow a tinpot dictator to get nukes -- from that point forwards the U.S. will undoubtedly first-strike any country trying it, and Russia and China will just have to deal with it.) Now the U.S. responds and uses only a few nukes to wipe out Pyongyang, Yongbyong, and related sites -- no missile defense there.
You might say this is an ecological disaster, but it's a blip in comparison to all the past atmospheric testing, so we'll survive.
Total tally: similar numbers of dead on both sides, about 1% of Americans, and about 12% of North Koreans.
Also affected: China's trade. You know what happens to that: total blockade by the U.S. Navy, as well as a prohibition on all Allies (big and small) trading with China, as well as canceling all American debt to China. You think a POTUS wouldn't do this if he/she had 3 million dead Americans to think about? No. Any POTUS who didn't do this would get deposed soon and the successor would impose this.
Do NK's nukes work as a deterrent? Maybe, but I think not. The U.S. has a larger nuclear deterrent vs. NK, and larger economic deterrent vs. China. KJU can die and not make that big a dent in the U.S., while the U.S. can wipe out KJU's ruling party and then some, and then too cause the deepest Depression in China, along with all the civil strife you might expect, and probably regime change in time.
It is absolutely in the interests of any POTUS to a) convey all of this to China (though that's not entirely necessary; Xi can count chips too), b) appear mad enough to ignore NK's deterrent. DJT can appear MADder than KJU. You don't have to buy it -- only Xi and KJU do, and I think recent events say they got the message.
In order to have a viable nuclear deterrent NK really needs enough return-strike nukes to get tens of them past U.S. missile defense. That's a lot of nukes, and there's not a lot of room in NK to put them without the U.S. being able to obliterate them in a first strike. So what NK really needs is that many nukes deliverable via SLBMs, and that's decidedly beyond their reach.
Yes, it's entirely possible (likely even) that KJU is aiming to pull a bait-n-switch at the coming summit with DJT. It's even entirely possible (but unlikely) that DJT will take a lesser deal out of desperation to save face. But I don't buy the latter, and I think in the end KJU will cave and give us what we want: unilateral nuclear disarmament.
QED
But still, you'll persist, so let's think it through.
Let's say that NK has 3 nukes. Let's say the U.S. has 1,000. Let's say all 1,003 nukes have the same yield, let's say 400K tons of TNT. And let's say both countries have ICBMs and can deliver all their nukes anywhere in the world in ~30 minutes.
Now let's say that NK strikes first and its warheads somehow get past U.S. missile defenses (maybe three nukes is what they have after missile defense). That's about 1% of the U.S. population dead. (Aside: the U.S. thenceforth will never again allow a tinpot dictator to get nukes -- from that point forwards the U.S. will undoubtedly first-strike any country trying it, and Russia and China will just have to deal with it.) Now the U.S. responds and uses only a few nukes to wipe out Pyongyang, Yongbyong, and related sites -- no missile defense there.
You might say this is an ecological disaster, but it's a blip in comparison to all the past atmospheric testing, so we'll survive.
Total tally: similar numbers of dead on both sides, about 1% of Americans, and about 12% of North Koreans.
Also affected: China's trade. You know what happens to that: total blockade by the U.S. Navy, as well as a prohibition on all Allies (big and small) trading with China, as well as canceling all American debt to China. You think a POTUS wouldn't do this if he/she had 3 million dead Americans to think about? No. Any POTUS who didn't do this would get deposed soon and the successor would impose this.
Do NK's nukes work as a deterrent? Maybe, but I think not. The U.S. has a larger nuclear deterrent vs. NK, and larger economic deterrent vs. China. KJU can die and not make that big a dent in the U.S., while the U.S. can wipe out KJU's ruling party and then some, and then too cause the deepest Depression in China, along with all the civil strife you might expect, and probably regime change in time.
It is absolutely in the interests of any POTUS to a) convey all of this to China (though that's not entirely necessary; Xi can count chips too), b) appear mad enough to ignore NK's deterrent. DJT can appear MADder than KJU. You don't have to buy it -- only Xi and KJU do, and I think recent events say they got the message.
In order to have a viable nuclear deterrent NK really needs enough return-strike nukes to get tens of them past U.S. missile defense. That's a lot of nukes, and there's not a lot of room in NK to put them without the U.S. being able to obliterate them in a first strike. So what NK really needs is that many nukes deliverable via SLBMs, and that's decidedly beyond their reach.
Yes, it's entirely possible (likely even) that KJU is aiming to pull a bait-n-switch at the coming summit with DJT. It's even entirely possible (but unlikely) that DJT will take a lesser deal out of desperation to save face. But I don't buy the latter, and I think in the end KJU will cave and give us what we want: unilateral nuclear disarmament.