I'm not sure it's "fine" if you're posting record losses, still more than 50% under capacity to make a profit later in the year, and dealing with recent manufacturing problems so serious that you literally had to close the production lines down.
As I write this, TSLA is down about 6% on the day, and it's not as if sharp drops or a general downward trend are unusual over the past year. They're in real trouble, and this doesn't seem like a good time for Musk to let his ego out of its box.
But time is a factor, especially in relation to milestones. I think everyone would agree that Tesla's Autopilot and full-self-driving aspirations were going extremely well in 2016 [0], and we can safely assume that progress is still being made into 2018. The more relevant part, though, is the amount of progress relative to Tesla's earlier assumptions [1], and of course, compared to its competitors' progress.
It's also worth noting that Ford Motor company was founded in 1903. They installed their first moving assembly line at the end if 1913. This is the innovation for which Henry Ford is most famous.
By the 1930s, Ford Motor had 30 years of experience. Between 1908 and 1924, Ford built 10 million Model Ts.[0]
I don't know if Tesla will build 10 million cars by 2024. I think that would be incredible if they did. Nor do I know if they will be manufacturing 2 million/year by 2030. If that happens, they will have matched Ford. They will have done it in a mature market, unlike Ford. They will have done it with modern manufacturing technology. They will have done it when owning a car is taken for granted. I'm still not sure how that comparison would reflect on Tesla.
A comparison with 1918 Ford vs 2018 Tesla seems more relevant than a comparison between 1930s Ford and 2018 Tesla. But it still doesn't seem like a very clean comparison.
As I wrote, I think that the comparison is interesting.
I'm just not sure how applicable the comparison is. I think you could compare 1930s Ford vs contemporary automakers to 2018 Tesla vs contemporary EV makers. But comparing 1930s Ford vs horse and buggy to 2018 Tesla vs contemporary automakers seems less apt to me. I think the move from horse and buggy to automobile was very different than the move from ICE vehicles to EV vehicles.
I do think that Ford's early success is incredible. It is astonishing to me that Ford could be selling millions of cars a year in 1930. I'd be interested in other transitions involving such a large expense that happened so quickly. It is interesting to wonder what the equivalent would look like today. But I don't think it is exactly fair to label someone a disappointment if they don't measure up to 1930s Ford.
