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I'm having trouble articulating this, please forgive:

I didn't explain "the other stuff" for why jelly bean estimating works.

The number doesn't matter. It's the shared hallucination (consensus) for the deadline. It short circuited, resolved the debate about "how long". It secures the team buy-in.

Once we had a deadline, we managed the work to match. Closest analog I can think of is Kickstarter: initial goal and stretch goals. We had the must haves (stuff listed in the draft press release). We also had dozens of nice to haves we'd sneak in, time permitting.

Agile, Scrum, sprint style estimating is too fine grained, the horizon too near, to do effective estimating.



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