None of the curves ever go to 1. The main curve ("spread only") never even reaches 0.4.
> So as far as I can tell, they're not saying a recession is guaranteed if the probability increases beyond the critical threshold
They certainly shouldn't be saying that, since the curve being at that level means precisely that the probability of recession is 0.24, not 1.
None of the curves ever go to 1. The main curve ("spread only") never even reaches 0.4.
> So as far as I can tell, they're not saying a recession is guaranteed if the probability increases beyond the critical threshold
They certainly shouldn't be saying that, since the curve being at that level means precisely that the probability of recession is 0.24, not 1.