Apple has 15%, not 45%. So it's 5-8x, not 22x. And the original quote appears to be about all phones, not just smartphones, so the factor would in fact be even lower.
It was partially accurate. Statistically no one bought an unsubsidized phone for $600. Apple lowered the price to $300 within 6 months and then went for the standardized subsidized model the next year.
If by "basically accurate," you mean "not accurate at all."
It's a long way from 2% to 45%. Not many companies get to underestimate their competition's potential marketshare by a factor of 22 and survive.