My opinion is not a popular one but I'll reiterate-China will not overtake US at least for the next 100 years.
I think this trade war has been very telling, it showed the underlying fragility of China's boasting as a superpower.
All in all, I see USA recovering from the Trump blunder, and I believe that it will come out stronger than ever.
If anti-fragile by Taleb holds true, the US Gov is relatively anti-fragile to Russian or Chinese ones. Note that anti-fragility refers to the recoverability when exposed to unforseen circumstances. We see the US democratic system evolving and we will see a much stronger democratic process as a result.
On the other hand, things don't look good for Russia's economy along with China now facing an exodus of foreign investors and corporations nervous with China's new dictator.
They are a much larger country. At about 15k gdp per capita, they'll match our gdp... and that's just a solid middle-income country... not exceptional. As they start to exceed that, certainly that economic power will start to show itself globally.
For comparison, Taiwan and South Korea are at ~$30k. That would result in a gdp 2x as large as the US (about 40T).
I think this trade war has been very telling, it showed the underlying fragility of China's boasting as a superpower.
All in all, I see USA recovering from the Trump blunder, and I believe that it will come out stronger than ever.
If anti-fragile by Taleb holds true, the US Gov is relatively anti-fragile to Russian or Chinese ones. Note that anti-fragility refers to the recoverability when exposed to unforseen circumstances. We see the US democratic system evolving and we will see a much stronger democratic process as a result.
On the other hand, things don't look good for Russia's economy along with China now facing an exodus of foreign investors and corporations nervous with China's new dictator.