Presumably this will push up the schedule for the live abort tests for the SpaceX and Boeing systems. That would appear to be the "nut" in the schedule before those systems become operational.
Of course there is still a Soyuz attached to the Space Station and it can return the crew, but that that would leave the station unmanned. Not something it is really designed for as I understand it. And even before that drastic call is made we can still send supplies up so it isn't like they would be in danger of running out of stuff.
Personally I'm very impressed with the reliability of the Soyuz system. Still I would love to have Boeing and SpaceX get certified sooner rather than later.
Boeing decided years ago to certify their in-flight abort using simulation only, and NASA let them.
SpaceX probably can't create a simulation in a few months to not need in-flight abort test because developing a simulation that NASA would consider "proof" probably takes years.
NASA has indicated today they are not going to rush commercial crew [1][3], to not press SpaceX and Boeing into go-fever which NASA has learned is very dangerous.
Because the timing of SpaceX DM-1 (uncrewed demo flight of crewed Dragon 2) depends on ISS visiting vehicle schedule, it might move to the left if visiting vehicle schedule gets reshuffled.
NASA has indicated in today's briefing that crew must be present on station to oversee commercial crew tests [2], so if ISS is de-crewed in December, SpaceX DM-1 can't go in January as scheduled.
So somebody stows-away aboard DM-1 and then claims ownership of the ISS by right of possession. :-) That would make for an excellent young adult adventure novel.
> SpaceX probably can't create a simulation in a few months to not need in-flight abort test because developing a simulation that NASA would consider "proof" probably takes years.
SpaceX has the benefit of having a bunch of pre-flown rockets lying around. It may be cheaper to refurbish and do a real in-flight abort test than create a suitable simulation.
>Personally I'm very impressed with the reliability of the Soyuz system.
I was surprised to learn that the abort was performed manually by the Cosmonaut and that it happened after the escape tower had been jettison. They apparently used the "RUS" system that is using thrusters on the fairing.
In another thread I read the Soyuz is designed to stay in orbit for 200 days, which is in December for the one currently attached to ISS. So unless we can get a spaceship up to ISS by December, the crew has to return in December and the ISS will be left unmanned.
Can the Soyuz capsule be launched and docked while un-manned? If all doesn't go well with the investigation, they could do an un-manned launch to get an empty capsule up there to replace the currently docked capsule.
Rescheduling the SpaceX in-flight abort test would be tricky; they were planning to reuse the Dragon capsule from the uncrewed test flight, which also hasn't happened yet. (Boeing does not have an in-flight abort test scheduled at all, but they have a ground abort test pending, in addition to their uncrewed test flight -- and they otherwise seem to be further behind than SpaceX.)
It could go either way actually, depending on how people feel about potential outcomes. Things could be pushed up a bit to try to accelerate getting new crew rotation capabilities in place. Or things could be pushed back to avoid extra workload and pressure on a short-staffed station.
There are only three right now. The usual procedure is to have enough Soyuz capacity for everyone on the station, so when the station has 6 people, there are two Soyuz.
I love that fact that there are "usual procedures" when it comes to humans going back and forth to our 20-year-old SPACE STATION!
Maybe we don't have the space program of our dreams. But we've certainly accomplished the goal of having "routine" operations in space over a long period of time. How much have humans learned in that time!
Without heroes the public will turn against it and not give a damn about robots and computers. I think we need manned space programs to keep the momentum going. Otherwise everyone will be like "why are we in space when the homeless don't have homes". I know it's stupid logic but that the way the masses think quite often.
Most people I know were, and still are, pretty excited about Spirit and Opportunity. Those were exciting robots at the time. Especially the fact that they worked for so long! 14 YEARS. The design is validated, let's have an assembly line cranking them out and tweaking them.
I love that fact that there are "usual procedures" when it comes to humans going back and forth to our 20-year-old SPACE STATION!
Next, we'll have real-life gritty action heroes who admit to "making it up as I go along?" (Actually, that was Neil Armstrong when we manually piloted the first lunar landing.)
Nothing in space in usual or "safe". There is always a relatively large chance that you can end up in a fireball relative to say getting on an airplane or driving to work. I wouldn't ever take space for granted at this point.
Also I believe the seats are all custom shaped for each astronaut's body. I'm sure in dire circumstances they could use a capsule that wasn't designed for them, but it's very much a case of each astronaut having a very specific seat designated for the ride home, rather than "do we have enough seats".
The custom seats mean you cannot use someone else's. You wouldnt fit (if too big) and would obstruct things. I may be possible, but would never be part of any plan. There are also weight/balance issues to consider.
Of course there is still a Soyuz attached to the Space Station and it can return the crew, but that that would leave the station unmanned. Not something it is really designed for as I understand it. And even before that drastic call is made we can still send supplies up so it isn't like they would be in danger of running out of stuff.
Personally I'm very impressed with the reliability of the Soyuz system. Still I would love to have Boeing and SpaceX get certified sooner rather than later.