"Highly valued companies typically grow quickly or generate big profits -- and great ones do both. In the fourth quarter of 2005, Amazon.com Inc. had about the same revenue as Uber’s today -- just under $3 billion, not adjusted for inflation. Yet, Amazon earned $199 million in profit and was worth about a fourth of Uber’s $76 billion valuation."
I think this graph neatly summarizes the concern at this point. There are few signs that the business can live up to its existing hefty valuation, not-to-mention the even-loftier IPO expectations.
Amazon was also famously unprofitable as a public company for a long, long time. But they still had revenue growth rates worth investing in and potentially more defensible businesses.
I do wonder if the ride-sharing business will wind up like the airlines business: valuable, booming but very, very tough to consistently make large profits.
> I do wonder if the ride-sharing business will wind up like the airlines business: valuable, booming but very, very tough to consistently make large profits.
Rather, how the airline business used to be, before it consolidated down enough (in the US). Now it's a goldmine of consistent profit compared to what it used to be.
Delta - the world's most profitable airline - generated $24 billion in operating income over the prior four fiscal years; $3.3b in the last two quarters. Not impressive compared to certain tech giants, however still excellent operating profitability given the history of airlines. The major US airlines are of course domestic focused, so the corporate tax cut took them all from ~35-40% rates down to closer to 20%, further bolstering their bonanza.
It's why Warren Buffett bought ~10% of all of them (Berkshire owns 9.2% of Delta, 9.7% of American, 9.8% of Southwest, 9.8% of United). He perceived that the market had permanently shifted due to consolidation. The airlines have become more like the modern railroads, going from brutal competition to stable oligopoly and consistent profit machines.
I think this graph neatly summarizes the concern at this point. There are few signs that the business can live up to its existing hefty valuation, not-to-mention the even-loftier IPO expectations.
Amazon was also famously unprofitable as a public company for a long, long time. But they still had revenue growth rates worth investing in and potentially more defensible businesses.
I do wonder if the ride-sharing business will wind up like the airlines business: valuable, booming but very, very tough to consistently make large profits.