AWS by itself will be the size of Oracle in fiscal 2020. They'll do $24-$25 billion in sales for 2018. Oracle's business hasn't expanded in years: sales in 2015 were $38b, and that's still their approximate annualized sales figure today. AWS is ~64% the size of Oracle. In 2019 they'll be 85% the size of Oracle.
So there you have Oracle with essentially zero growth and a failed cloud business that is not only running from behind, it's a disaster. Things are so bad, Oracle has begun trying to hide their cloud numbers when they report.
Simultaneously, Oracle's balance sheet is turning into a toxic wasteland. Net tangible assets have gone from positive $6 billion to negative $12 billion in just three quarters. They're now spending the equivalent of ~22% of their net profit on debt interest alone. Ellison will have to try to turn to another very large acquisition soon to bail out the ship that is about to sink. As the large cloud competitors get far larger in the next few years, they're going to begin not just robbing Oracle of growth but taking their existing business away. The scale is at a point where for AWS and Azure to double in size again (guaranteed to happen), Oracle is going to lose big.
So there you have Oracle with essentially zero growth and a failed cloud business that is not only running from behind, it's a disaster. Things are so bad, Oracle has begun trying to hide their cloud numbers when they report.
Simultaneously, Oracle's balance sheet is turning into a toxic wasteland. Net tangible assets have gone from positive $6 billion to negative $12 billion in just three quarters. They're now spending the equivalent of ~22% of their net profit on debt interest alone. Ellison will have to try to turn to another very large acquisition soon to bail out the ship that is about to sink. As the large cloud competitors get far larger in the next few years, they're going to begin not just robbing Oracle of growth but taking their existing business away. The scale is at a point where for AWS and Azure to double in size again (guaranteed to happen), Oracle is going to lose big.