For the low-end deeply embedded space, I could see RISC V becoming a significant player in the next 5 years. ARM is relatively expensive there (it's cheap compared to Intel for servers, but at the low end it's more the IBM of Microsoft of old), and there's less need for their ecosystem (most 3rd party software is open source). The Cortex M are less flexible then some competitors in their configuration, and designing good small CPU IP is doable at the low end. So all the small custom designers (Andes, BA semi, Cortus...) can rally around RISC V and have cheap and flexible design, with a good shared software ecosystem. Today it's still one or the other.
At the high-end it's very different. To be competitive one has to take advantage of the latest process nodes, and work well ahead of time with fabs and EDA vendors on the next node(s). This is highly labor intensive, and it takes deep pockets and a lot of resources. ARM is already there, and well entrenched. Getting enough money to replicate this on the RISC V side will take a loooooong while, if it ever happens. Unless a deep pocketed company decides to use RISC V and go their own way, but it seems very unlikely. Look at how even Qualcomm reduced its work on custom ARM cores for their high end, and now do tweaks on ARM designs.
But personally I'm fine with this. It's mostly at the low end / embedded that I feel there's a need for more competition.
For the low-end deeply embedded space, I could see RISC V becoming a significant player in the next 5 years. ARM is relatively expensive there (it's cheap compared to Intel for servers, but at the low end it's more the IBM of Microsoft of old), and there's less need for their ecosystem (most 3rd party software is open source). The Cortex M are less flexible then some competitors in their configuration, and designing good small CPU IP is doable at the low end. So all the small custom designers (Andes, BA semi, Cortus...) can rally around RISC V and have cheap and flexible design, with a good shared software ecosystem. Today it's still one or the other.
At the high-end it's very different. To be competitive one has to take advantage of the latest process nodes, and work well ahead of time with fabs and EDA vendors on the next node(s). This is highly labor intensive, and it takes deep pockets and a lot of resources. ARM is already there, and well entrenched. Getting enough money to replicate this on the RISC V side will take a loooooong while, if it ever happens. Unless a deep pocketed company decides to use RISC V and go their own way, but it seems very unlikely. Look at how even Qualcomm reduced its work on custom ARM cores for their high end, and now do tweaks on ARM designs.
But personally I'm fine with this. It's mostly at the low end / embedded that I feel there's a need for more competition.