This article is irritating in that it doesn't give a balanced and useful view of the transportation trade offs. Very likely the author is aware of them but chooses to sweep under the carpet what doesn't suit his narrative.
A few observations to balance things out. First, rail is not the cheapest way to move freight, ships are by far, but rail is a distant second.
Rail obviously requires a lot of upkeep on the tracks, in addition to fuel and maintenance, whereas ships and planes have very little cost to maintain the fluids they travel in.
Electric transport on highways will quickly become very much cheaper than it is now because electric motors are much more efficient than fuel motors, solar and wind electricity costs are dropping precipitously, maintenance of electric motors is much less than fuel motors. Yes the roads still have to be maintained and heavier trucks mean much more maintenance.
Clearly, optimal transportation and shipping requires a hierarchy of trade offs that depend primarily upon scale. Two large cities that are 200 miles apart (eg New York and Boston) can support the overhead of a passenger rail connection. On the other hand San Francisco and New York, while large are too far apart, while another pair of cities might be 200 miles apart but the city populations are too small to support the rain infrastructure.
At the other end of the scale, an individual might take their bicycle on a 2 mile trip to the post office but would take their car on a 2 mile trip for the week's groceries.
Between these two extremes is a hierarchy of trade offs and there is no "one size fits all". Not even close. Rail is not the solution to all our transport problems. Neither are cars or bicycles. Each has its niche. If ships had legs then they might come close but unfortunately they don't, not to mention they are kind of slow.
So it's complicated but some trends might be usefully be predicted. Short haul flights will likely become cheaper as these planes become electrified and both energy and maintenance costs drop significantly. Trucking will become electrified and will compete even more effectively against trains and planes unless there is a labor shortage. Trains will continue to do what they are good at, long haul of heavy commodities and passenger service on intense routes. Electric cars will have lower fuel and maintenance costs so automobile miles will increase.
Perhaps the sum total of all this will mean that medium and smaller sized cities will become more competitive vis a vis their larger cousins over the next 50 years.
A few observations to balance things out. First, rail is not the cheapest way to move freight, ships are by far, but rail is a distant second.
Rail obviously requires a lot of upkeep on the tracks, in addition to fuel and maintenance, whereas ships and planes have very little cost to maintain the fluids they travel in.
Electric transport on highways will quickly become very much cheaper than it is now because electric motors are much more efficient than fuel motors, solar and wind electricity costs are dropping precipitously, maintenance of electric motors is much less than fuel motors. Yes the roads still have to be maintained and heavier trucks mean much more maintenance.
Clearly, optimal transportation and shipping requires a hierarchy of trade offs that depend primarily upon scale. Two large cities that are 200 miles apart (eg New York and Boston) can support the overhead of a passenger rail connection. On the other hand San Francisco and New York, while large are too far apart, while another pair of cities might be 200 miles apart but the city populations are too small to support the rain infrastructure.
At the other end of the scale, an individual might take their bicycle on a 2 mile trip to the post office but would take their car on a 2 mile trip for the week's groceries.
Between these two extremes is a hierarchy of trade offs and there is no "one size fits all". Not even close. Rail is not the solution to all our transport problems. Neither are cars or bicycles. Each has its niche. If ships had legs then they might come close but unfortunately they don't, not to mention they are kind of slow.
So it's complicated but some trends might be usefully be predicted. Short haul flights will likely become cheaper as these planes become electrified and both energy and maintenance costs drop significantly. Trucking will become electrified and will compete even more effectively against trains and planes unless there is a labor shortage. Trains will continue to do what they are good at, long haul of heavy commodities and passenger service on intense routes. Electric cars will have lower fuel and maintenance costs so automobile miles will increase.
Perhaps the sum total of all this will mean that medium and smaller sized cities will become more competitive vis a vis their larger cousins over the next 50 years.