1) Tablets aren't the only "post-PC" platform. Most of the leisure computing is done on smartphones when it would have been done on a laptop or desktop 5-10 years ago.
2) If we're considering tablets to be PC replacements, we should expect their sales trends to be along the lines of PC sales. People keep PCs a lot longer than smartphones, so we should expect people to keep their iPads a lot longer than their phones too.