The “one China” philosophy is a pretty core government tenet. If Hong Kong exercises its independence it could exacerbate other territories/provinces that want independence like Tibet and Taiwan (whose residents seem to pretty explicitly consider themselves a different country)
One the other hand, military action could plausibly cause long-lasting international upset.
Taiwan is de facto independent. It's just that China is sabotaging recognition of its independence through the one China policy. But that could change if a country like the US would openly challenge this.
The One China policy states that there is one China, either under the PRC or the ROC.
The PRC claims that Taiwan is a Special Administrative Region of the PRC while the ROC claims de jure sovereignty over all of China. There are significant political parties within Taiwan itself (the Pan-Blue Coalition parties) that support the One China policy.
If there isn't even internal consensus regarding independence in Taiwan, I think it's fair to say that the issue is a little more complicated than "China is sabotaging recognition of Taiwan's independence".
Indeed, and what's happening in Hong Kong is already affecting Taiwan, giving additional support to the pro-independent camp.
BTW, the ruling party of ROC was pretty authoritarian back then too. IMO, the contrasting political development of the ROC and PRC in the last few decades is worthy of further evaluation and consideration.
Taiwan is controlled by the ROC (Republic of China) which has existed since the end of the Xinhai revolution in 1912. The PRC (People's Republic of China) has no claim on Taiwan, has never controlled it, and has no legitimate casus belli for acquiring it.
Maybe my sample size is too small, but when I was in Shanghai they very clearly felt Taiwan was a (rebellious) part of China. To claim that PRC has no claim on Taiwan ignores the fact that even the US recognizes Taiwan as part of China (though to keep status quo we still sell arms to Taiwan).
Edit: sorry for the country typo; Was thinking about a trip to visit my friend in Shanghai who lived there until moving to Singapore recently.
> To claim that PRC has no claim on Taiwan ignores the fact that even the US recognizes Taiwan as part of China
The US has never officially recognized that the island Taiwan as part of the PRC, only as part of "China", which is ambiguous because there are two nations calling themselves China (PRC and ROC).
This is false. The US has "acknowledged" the "One China" position of both sides of the Strait since the 1970s, but it has never supported the notion that Taiwan (and Kinmen, Taiping, etc.) is PRC territory or that the mainland is ROC territory.
The feelings of Singaporean residents about the matter are not relevant to the discussion at all.
> Maybe my sample size is too small, but when I was in Singapore they very clearly felt Taiwan was a (rebellious) part of China. To claim that PRC has no claim on Taiwan ignores the fact that even the US recognizes Taiwan as part of China (though to keep status quo we still sell arms to Taiwan)
The US has agreed not to have official relations with the ROC, but the US has _never_ recognized the PRC's claims of Taiwan and the rest of the land controlled by the ROC.
One the other hand, military action could plausibly cause long-lasting international upset.
I don’t envy Xi Jinping’s position.