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An obvious counter example is Aircraft carriers need to refuel for their aircraft regularly and can’t travel quickly during this process. Nor can they accelerate quickly if caught in such a situation.

Further, to be useful aircraft carriers need to stay near their targets and a few subs acting in concert can lie in it’s probable path. Think one sub every ~30 miles in a line sweeping slowly and they can close the trap.

On top of that subs can also launch missiles not just torpedo’s.



> On top of that subs can also launch missiles not just torpedo’s.

From the blog post:

"Or can they avoid this by using missiles? Unfortunately, this is not likely to be a healthy choice. At best, an SSN might be able to fire 18 missiles in a single salvo. Even with the benefit of popping up close to the target (which requires going through a lot of those same defenses they’re trying to avoid), this is unlikely to be enough. Launching missiles is extremely noisy, and Aegis is set up to take cues from sonar. The missiles will likely be shot down, and the patch of sea the submarine launched from is not going to be a safe place."


Limits like 18 missiles are very easy to change in a war. Firing 100 vs 18 does not involve some huge leaps in technology, just a different focus.

Subs are extremely dangerous places or be in a war and should expect heavy casualties. However, from a military standpoint if the sub is destroyed after taking out an aircraft carrier that’s a major win.


You forgot the sub attached to the carrier is hunting for those subs, and planes can fly quite far. Missiles have to deal with CIWS and RAM.


Several ways around CIWS. Simply having enough missiles in the air works, but you can also do things like add armor or even forgo high explosive payloads relying instead on kinetic energy.

Aircraft carriers are huge targets and it's the weapon systems you don't know about that are the largest risks.




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