Yeah, sure, it's a matter of how you define the event.
Let's say some day you find an acquaintance on the street. Not extraordinary. But that specific acquaintance that you hadn't seen in 10 years. On that specific day, on that specific street, at that specific time. If you had wondered the day before how likely it would be that that specific set of circumstances would come togethet, you would have rightly concluded it was exceedingly unlikely.
This is another way of looking at the first example in the article. The question was not how likely it was that that specific woman had their two children die of natural causes, but how likely it was that someone in the country or the world would have such a thing happen in a large interval of time.
"The chances of this exact event are 1 in a trillion, therefore with a high degree of confidence, it isn't happening and I am in fact hallucinating. You're not real, Bob from highschool!"
And imagine how often you almost run into acquaintances on the street, and don't notice. It must happen more often than when you do notice. If you made a concerted effort to look for near-coincidences, you would suddenly find yourself noticing lots more unlikely things that were happening all along.
Once you start digging into someone's life you'll learn all sorts of things that might seem really unlikely... but you'd find unlikely things in someone's life picked at random, you just never dug into them, because they're not accused of murder.
Let's say some day you find an acquaintance on the street. Not extraordinary. But that specific acquaintance that you hadn't seen in 10 years. On that specific day, on that specific street, at that specific time. If you had wondered the day before how likely it would be that that specific set of circumstances would come togethet, you would have rightly concluded it was exceedingly unlikely.
This is another way of looking at the first example in the article. The question was not how likely it was that that specific woman had their two children die of natural causes, but how likely it was that someone in the country or the world would have such a thing happen in a large interval of time.