If I had $50 billion on this day to buy part of 1 company, I'd take Goldman no question.
A few years ago if you got Facebook stock at a lower valuation, sure that would make you a lot of money. But if Facebook makes $2 billion now, and they already have 25% of the internet users as members, where does the growth come from? 50b valuation is right given their current revenues, but they're not going to go from 25% to 100% of total internet users. And their cost structure will not go down to 0. So we're basically betting on how much more money Facebook can squeeze out of each active user. I just don't see it being a huge amount.
Where as GS has a lot of ways to make money, and has proven their ability to make money over and over and over again through a lot of markets and a lot of times. Facebook could peak at $100b and you only doubled your money. (Which isn't that good for this kind of investment).
While I'm sure it's a factor, I'm not convinced that Facebook's growth needs involve having to increase their userbase in that manner. There are still many ways to monetize the existing one since I don't believe they've done that very efficiently yet.
There is a lot of room for internal growth. For example:
"Places is currently available in a few select countries with many more on the way."
I'm sure this isn't the only significant new development that is not rolled out around the world. With Facebook rolling out Places, they are also building out their global sales team.
However growth isn't everything. The cost of growth is important too! And we don't know what that is.
I think you're missing the danger that a lack of growth involves to Facebook.
Facebook isn't monetizing their existing customers and their customers are there because "it's the thing" - all one billion of them or however many they currently have. We aren't just there because everyone else is, we're there 'cause it's like a new club, a new experience, new thing. NEW. If everyone's on Facebook and it's just that dumb place that everyone on, then... the appeal shrinks...
If Facebook growth visibly stalled, if I'm no longer having that interesting experience of old acquaintances becoming newly visible, then suddenly the process of Facebook shrinkage appears. And if this is the moment Facebook is visibly trying to get more out of me, then the shrinkage might really accelerates.
I've seen just a couple friends quit FB recently. Not a big trend but I also haven't seen more people join.
Imagine if ... it was ... the most ephemeral $50 B ever...
I think Facebook's way past being the 'new' thing. People are finding a use for it beyond 'old acquaintances becoming newly visible".
You have the average user who uses it to keep in touch with friends, but you also have a growing number of users who are using Facebook in more and more creative ways. I personally know a couple of hundred friends who have thousands of pictures hosted on it (not something they'd give up easily), I've seen my mother find all her elementary classmates and organize a reunion spanning several states all within 2 months (surprised even me, I didn't think she got past her yahoo email).
My point is, Facebook's utility for its users is still increasing, something that stagnated in Myspace' case. We haven't even touched on the social gaming aspect of it (If I see another cityville invite I swear I'll block them fools). Growth to me involves more creative ways to involve its existing users, as well as of course growing its numbers (which it is). There's still the potential of its international users (which I believe is larger than its US Mainland users), increased corporate/business identities on the site, social commerce (barely touched), organized product reviews, that new mail system it's supposedly rolling out, and so on. We can talk numbers, but potential for monetizing their existing userbase appeals to me more.
A few years ago if you got Facebook stock at a lower valuation, sure that would make you a lot of money. But if Facebook makes $2 billion now, and they already have 25% of the internet users as members, where does the growth come from? 50b valuation is right given their current revenues, but they're not going to go from 25% to 100% of total internet users. And their cost structure will not go down to 0. So we're basically betting on how much more money Facebook can squeeze out of each active user. I just don't see it being a huge amount.
Where as GS has a lot of ways to make money, and has proven their ability to make money over and over and over again through a lot of markets and a lot of times. Facebook could peak at $100b and you only doubled your money. (Which isn't that good for this kind of investment).