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If you read Ray Dalio, he seems think think the next recession will be a "debt supercycle" which could be worse than 2008. (this could be him plugging his hedge fund, but he's semi retired, and really has no more money needed to make personally) Note also that recessions have been growing longer each cycle. IMHO it's related to the bottom 99% having been getting paid smaller and smaller portions of wealth, and so a base resiliency of economies become weaker each cycle.


It's hard to follow his reasoning sometimes. Sometimes it seems like he's saying that we already went through the debt supercycle, or the end of the long-term debt cycle and we've already gone through the reflation period.

But other times it sounds like he's saying the real "big one" is still about to happen, rather than just another recession.


I haven't ever seen anything from him that says we've gone through it already - he cagey about exactly when (and that's the correct view imo) the next big recession hits, but I see him trying to lay groundwork to allow a few paradigm shifts in how governments have to take on new financial tools if we want to stay stable - e.g. helicopter money. You could get his "Big Debt Crisis" book (I got the free pdf on rollout), that lays out the case in detail with data.


He's referred to 2008 as the end of the long-term debt cycle, and the ten years since then as the reflation period.


I don't think he saw 2008 as the end as much as it was the start of the end game - the debts have definitely come to any sort of deleveraging beautiful or ugly, and certainly no resolution of the fundamental inequality the Dalio was identifying as a root concern.


40% chance of recession according to Dalio before 2020:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/16/bridgewater-ray-dalio-on-pos...


> If you read Ray Dalio ...

Where does he publish his stuff?


https://www.principles.com/#get-the-books

Big Debt Crisis is an interesting read if you have an interest in his economic outlook. Still a free pdf I see..




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