and that it would be a trade war the US would lose because of the directionality of the trade
I expect the US to lose the trade war simply because China will have the fortitude to outlast it, but why would the direction of trade favor China in the trade war? Shouldn't China have more to lose due to being a net exporter?
Yeah China definitely has more to lose. The US will win if it goes on for long enough, but it's like chopping off your hand in order to chop off another guy's arm. You're technically winning, but you're also inflicting enormous pain on yourself.
I also agree that in reality China has more ability to withstand pain and the US will blink first if it comes down to it.
Not that I'm confident or knowledgable enough to put money on any of this, but I believe it's assumed that the US has a privileged position in the world because of its relative stability (the US infrastructure wasn't ravaged during the World Wars) and has the world's Reserve Currency. If things were more "equatable" the US would have a less privileged position. That also means any losses will be difficult or impossible to get back.
I expect the US to lose the trade war simply because China will have the fortitude to outlast it, but why would the direction of trade favor China in the trade war? Shouldn't China have more to lose due to being a net exporter?