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Can't help but start to think that everyone is cashing out before the impending recession.



Grouping the filings from https://sec.report/Form/S-1 by day:

2019-07-18 5

2019-07-19 7

2019-07-22 10

2019-07-23 4

2019-07-24 12

2019-07-25 12

2019-07-26 7

2019-07-29 7

2019-07-30 7

2019-07-31 4

2019-08-01 5

2019-08-02 14

2019-08-05 3

2019-08-06 7

2019-08-07 6

2019-08-08 6

2019-08-09 5

2019-08-12 10

2019-08-13 5

2019-08-14 2

2019-08-15 6

2019-08-16 5

2019-08-19 4

2019-08-20 5

2019-08-21 8

2019-08-22 4

2019-08-23 9

2019-08-26 4

2019-08-27 2

Grouping this by complete weeks (excluding weeks where we don't have a complete Monday -> Friday list) we get totals of 45, 37, 27, 28, 30, in that order. Don't know what typical trends are by time of year, etc. HN has had a flurry of posts about S1s, but this trend doesn't seem to be the sudden uptick it has seemed to be on HN.


I think you'd want a chart going back a few years, grouped by month. Glad to see some actual data though!


https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NEWORDER (capital purchases by manufacturing)

It isn’t even clear that there is a risk of a recession according to some economic indicators.


In 2008, this indicator didn't turn down until the recession was well underway.


What about earlier ones? 2008 was a recession because the bottom fell out of the credit market after the subprime bubble popped not because of larger trends so it makes sense that capital investments didn't decline until they just couldn't get credit.


IPO takes months and months of effort and planning. It is not as short term as you seem to imply.


Which is why they're hurrying to get them done now, before things get bad?

It does seem like there are a number of them, but maybe that's just my impression. Anyone got numbers?


Also looks like they are already profitable, and growing like crazy.

EDIT: my bad interpreting the loss format, they are not profitable.


> We have incurred operating losses in the past, expect to incur operating losses in the future, and may not achieve or maintain profitability in the future

> We have incurred operating losses each year since our inception in 2012, including net losses of $(71.1) million, $(47.9) million, and $(195.6) million for fiscal 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively, and expect to continue to incur net losses for the foreseeable future.

They've never been profitable.


My mistake, I interpreted the $(...) values as being negative losses.


Look at their contribution margins though. Especially on subs. Unit economics are, I guess unsurprisingly, fantastic on selling 2k bikes with a ~40$ monthly sub.


They're operating at a -25% EBITDA, so no they are not.


So does a major recession.


This comment has nothing to do with the financials of this particular IPO and everything to do with a perceived correlation between this event and some arbitrary macroeconomic event. Is there any reasoning you can give for why your hunch disproves the null hypothesis, which is that there is no connection between IPOs and what you perceive to be the impending recession?




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