Yep, I think you hit the nail on the head. When it comes to new companies and business models, timing is super important. A great example of this was the dotcom boom where you saw a bunch of companies with (arguably) the right idea go bust, and then years later another company picked up where they left off and succeeded.
Also, it’s worth asking wondering what percentage of users you need in order to make a huge impact even if most people continue to use free stuff.
My guess is that it could be as low as 1%.