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>> We usually anticipate 4x.

All software estimation boils down to the long established scientific methodology:

(2 X what the last person said) optionally plus 2 weeks



Years ago I worked with a developer who had a different methodology: 2x, then bump the unit of measure. Thus, 1 day -> 2 weeks; 2 weeks -> 4 months. It's been remarkably accurate over the past couple of decades.


Mine is to multiply by five. It’s pretty accurate.


8 weeks => 16 months, 2 months => 4 years

???

Doesn't seem consistent


> 2 months => 4 years

It's consistently correct.


Except if you are in sales. If so it's 1/2 of what the last person said, or optionally 2 weeks.




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