> (...) The paths that lead to new ideas tend to look unpromising. If they looked promising, other people would already have explored them.

an ode to metaphorical basement dwellers and a warning to those roaming illuminated paths

  Nasreddin lost his ring in the basement of his house. He went outside and began searching. A curious passerby asked what he was doing. 
  "I've lost my ring" he said. "Where did you lose it?" asked the man.
  "In the basement of my house" he replied. "Then why not look for it there?" said the man. "Because it's dark in my basement, and I can't see a thing in there!"

> (...) But as with any hedge, you're decreasing reward when you decrease risk.

and a tool recently mentioned here for evaluating bets

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion