Google is perfectly capable of untying their search from Android via a software update, because that’s the remedy they already developed and use in Russia. Turkey is asking them to turn on the same capability. Google is saying they could but that they won’t, because Turkey isn’t a big enough country to make them.
And yes, if Google is breaking US and international anti-trust laws, “forcing” people to do things is generally the remedy of last resort.
Or rather, the cost of providing Android and supporting the Turkish market outweighs the money they can make now that their search engine is no longer allowed exclusive billing on Android phones. To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if we see further retreats like this from Google.
Or perhaps the Russian market was large enough that the return on continued investment in it despite the required changes justified remaining in it and the Turkish market isn't large enough to justify continuing to invest in it.
What investment? Google already develops Android, they already developed the “untying” feature for Russia. What’s left? Turkish Localization? I find it hard to believe that even a 50% mobile search share in Turkey won’t pay those incremental costs.
I find it much more believable that this is a simple pressure play.
Ongoing support for the Turkish market. Technical support staff who can speak Turkish, documentation in the Turkish language, and a team of developers to handle Turkish-specific i18n bugs. None of these are 'incremental' costs.
My thinking is that if this argument is true, Google should be the one making it. They don’t need HN to “reverse engineer” a defense for them, particularly one that may not be factually correct.
Please don't shift goalposts - you asked a question (on HN!), got an answer here (based on conjecture), and you now want an official Google response that breaks down the reasons?
My point is simply that the conjecture seems difficult to believe on the face of it, but that I would be willing to revisit my beliefs if Google actually made the claim. The fact that Google has made no such claim makes it more difficult to take seriously.
Anyway, less facetiously, while some Turkish-specific i18n bugs will need special focus I suppose most of them will not need anything more than a the normal developer team gives them. For example when I was developing a solution that also needed to be available in Greenlandic there were some bugs related to the language, but I did not actually need to speak the language to be able to solve the bugs. I doubt they will really need a team of developers just to solve the Turkish language bugs.
Maybe Turkey can do other things in retaliation such as: ban Google from operating in Turkey until they comply, block Google, join the Eurasian Economic Union and sign an agreement with Russia and the other members, forcing Google treat all EAEU members equally or get out of those markets.
And yes, if Google is breaking US and international anti-trust laws, “forcing” people to do things is generally the remedy of last resort.