1. 100 trillion parameter neural net is trained at the very end of the decade. May or may not be useful but I think this is mostly a problem of memory bandwidth and is doable with a minimal number of die shrinks.
2. I will take the under on SelfDrivingCars cars. Way too much pessimism here. The entire first wave of startups( save for TESLA and Comma) are using the same DARPA challenge codebase. New players using reinforcement learning will crack the problem.
3. China will not become a democracy.
4. China will be a leader in software as well as hardware. A Chinese-made social network will be widely used in Europe.
5. Learning-based systems will be successfully applied to proof search. Very significant mathematical problems will fall to such systems before the end of the decade.
6.Quantum computers will not be capable of simulating any significant/useful chemistry in this decade.
7. A baby with 100+ edited alleles will be born and healthy, probably in China.
8. Cognitive genomics will come to the fore as it becomes clear several standard deviations increases in mental traits, including IQ, are possible with such edits. Lysenkoist ideologies may have trouble adapting, but by the end of the decade it will be clear to most which way the wind is blowing.
9. AGI has not happened yet, but the conspiracy of silence around the topic no longer prevails. The field. Most people in machine learning consider AGI the goal of the field, and say so without shame.
2. I will take the under on SelfDrivingCars cars. Way too much pessimism here. The entire first wave of startups( save for TESLA and Comma) are using the same DARPA challenge codebase. New players using reinforcement learning will crack the problem.
3. China will not become a democracy.
4. China will be a leader in software as well as hardware. A Chinese-made social network will be widely used in Europe.
5. Learning-based systems will be successfully applied to proof search. Very significant mathematical problems will fall to such systems before the end of the decade.
6.Quantum computers will not be capable of simulating any significant/useful chemistry in this decade.
7. A baby with 100+ edited alleles will be born and healthy, probably in China.
8. Cognitive genomics will come to the fore as it becomes clear several standard deviations increases in mental traits, including IQ, are possible with such edits. Lysenkoist ideologies may have trouble adapting, but by the end of the decade it will be clear to most which way the wind is blowing.
9. AGI has not happened yet, but the conspiracy of silence around the topic no longer prevails. The field. Most people in machine learning consider AGI the goal of the field, and say so without shame.