The communicated expectation was always 360k-400k. This was a range that “everyone” said was impossible to reach even at the low end.
A tweet issued after hours and corrected the same day does not change the range explicitly stated in every earnings call and quarterly statement Tesla issued throughout 2019.
It doesn’t matter what you or I think. The market speaks for itself. After announcing the number the stock is up ~3.5%. That indicates that reaching the lower range number was not fully priced in as of yesterday, and that the market deems this to be good news.
Also, the annualized run rate with GF3 producing 3k/week would exceed 10k/wk based on 100,000 cars produced in Fremont in 13 weeks in Q4. Getting GF3 to 3k/week less than one year after breaking ground was also something the pundits said was “impossible”.
>This was a range that “everyone” said was impossible to reach even at the low end.
Really? Because I follow some of TESLAQ on Twitter, and many were expecting 115k delivered this quarter. Consensus was around 110k. One prominent poster had 367k for the year, and was within a fraction of a percent of what Tesla ended up delivering (isn't it odd that analysts can forecast more accurately than the CEO?)
I'm not sure where you are getting the idea that "everyone" said the low end would be impossible. I don't know a single analyst who thought that. Care to provide a source?
>stated in every earnings call and quarterly statement Tesla issued throughout 2019.
I don't think they stated that number in any call except the Q3 call, but you could easily prove me wrong. What he did state, though, that Tesla wouldn't be "self-constrained to 400,000 units" (Q1 call). He also said that Freemont would be producing 8,000 - 9,000 cars per week in Q3 (Q2 call).
>The market speaks for itself.
Ah yes, the old infallible market. What does stock price have to do with anything?
> “In total, we are expecting to deliver 360,000 to 400,000 vehicles in 2019, representing a growth of approximately 45% to 65% compared to 2018” [1]
Finding a listing of consensus analyst estimates for 2019 made early in the year is a lot harder. But as late as last week the consensus was barely 360k.
Put your money where your mouth is and short the stock (or buy put options) :)
PS> I am a Tesla owner who then bought the stock as well since the experience was so revolutionary. I agree with the other poster who compared it to the 2007 iPhone.
Well, that statement may or not be right. I guess only the future will answer that one, but;
How do you really value a company like Tesla?
According to skeptics the company should've been dead 10 times over already. But if you actually do some research, you find that the technology is sound, the execution is there, and not at least the vision of an electric future is there.
Further more its CEO has stated that 'We're going to do these other things also.' - Referring to Full Self Driving and production rates. It has a track record of delivering; 'maybe not on time - but we get it done.' There's no real reason to doubt that they are serious, go watch autonomy day and you'd get the idea.
The vision isn't just automotive, it's solar for homes and grid batteries as well. a decentralized power grid for the future.
Meanwhile all the promised competition and Tesla killers have proven to be vaporware. And that's before you start looking at the logistics of making an electric car. With electric cars you need batteries and lot's of them. No other car manufacturer has access to enough volume to even begin to compete with Tesla, these battery factories haven't even been built. And the electric motors of competitor are less efficient by a large margin, meaning they need larger batteries for the same range, and higher charging speed to be able to charge the same distance in time as a Tesla.
Buying tsla is right now like buying a part of the future, and no other company is close.
Is the share price ridiculously high? Yes, but which other company in the world right now is stumping the competition as badly as Tesla. The only real comparison is Apple after the release of the iPhone. But while apple got real competition after 4-5 years. Tesla still rules all the important metrics regarding electric cars wh/km, accel, charging speed.
And apple still keeps most of the profits in the mobile market, even tough they have a small market share.
So maybe it is rational pricing that you are seeing, the markets are trying to value more than just cars produced. After all the CEO is landing rockets on barges as well so who knows :)
>The vision isn't just automotive, it's solar for homes and grid batteries as well. a decentralized power grid for the future.
The "issue" is, these are low margin businesses. Why don't you provide some actual numbers? How many cars, roofs and batteries do they have to build/install to justify the market cap?
Much of the Tesla valuation is based on self driving taxis and appreciate cars, and that ain't happening for a while.
>But if you actually do some research,
You don't think funds with billions on the line are "doing research"? That's...presumptuous.
