I’m confident in predicting that tablets will be more than one third of unit sales to consumers of all PCs in Europe and North America within five years.
346 million PCs were sold worldwide in 2010, Apple sold 15 million iPads so far. That’s still a long way off but it is not impossible, especially with other manufacturers bringing their devices to the market.
This is a reasonable prediction. It might well be wrong but it is reasonable. Calling tablets “the future of personal computing” with such a prediction in mind seems perfectly justifiable to me. Don’t ridicule other reasonable opinions just because you disagree with them!
All of that? perfectly reasonable; the original claim? still slightly absurd.
If you want to look at it by comparison to the iphone led smartphone revolution, the timeframe there was:
first iphone release: 1/2007
first android phone: 10/2008
first touchscreen BB: 11/2008
first webos phone: 6/2009
(all dates courtesy of the wikipedia articles for the specific phones or OSes)
and then you didn't really get a phone which competed well with the iphone until, arguably, the nexus one which was in 2010 (or even the Pre which was middle of '09) making it a full 2.5 - 3 years later.
The point is that this stuff progresses in fits and spurts over a long period of time and that the next six months are going to be no more significant than the six which follow it, contrary to what HP's and Motorola's marketing people tell you today (or Apple's will in a few weeks time).
“The next six months are going to set the foundation for the future of personal computing.”
That’s the claim. Still seems reasonable to me. What’s wrong with it? I don’t understand what you are getting at.
If you think that tablets will be important in the future there is nothing wrong with thinking that a lot of groundwork will be done in the next few months: Honeycomb is coming, HP and RIM get started. That sounds to me like a solid foundation.
346 million PCs were sold worldwide in 2010, Apple sold 15 million iPads so far. That’s still a long way off but it is not impossible, especially with other manufacturers bringing their devices to the market.
This is a reasonable prediction. It might well be wrong but it is reasonable. Calling tablets “the future of personal computing” with such a prediction in mind seems perfectly justifiable to me. Don’t ridicule other reasonable opinions just because you disagree with them!