I don't think Tesla is fundamentally cell constrained on that timescale. They can expand cell production a lot faster than that. They have plenty of site space at Gigafactory 1, so can probably go from decision to expanded cell production inside of 18 or 24 months (maybe less if they find an empty factory with suitable utilities). Even faster, they can buy cells from, as you say, LGChem or others.
Tesla has long bought cells from others for its stationary storage products. They could pursue a similar strategy for Semi if they wanted (in the near term). The lower range Semi does not push battery chemistry particularly hard, so a third party cell is easily feasible there.
So I don't buy that they're cell constrained on such a long timescale. They're constrained by other things.
Will there be an additional 65 GWh of suitable battery cells available from third-party suppliers globally, at reasonable cost, in such a timeframe?
This seems somewhat doubtful to me, given how strategically important battery cells are for EVs, and how everyone and his dog has announced that they will make an EV.
Exactly 65GWh? I dunno. But a substantial number, yes.
Announcement of EVs doesn't count for much. The last 5 years have seen lots of announcements and not a ton of deployment.
Cylindrical cells (except for the longest range or highest performance vehicles) are nearly commodities. Tesla's early decision to go with cylindrical cells keeps being validated. It's a major risk reduction to be able to switch cell producers without redesigning the whole battery pack or car. Other car companies like Rivian are also using cylindrical cells.
Tesla has long bought cells from others for its stationary storage products. They could pursue a similar strategy for Semi if they wanted (in the near term). The lower range Semi does not push battery chemistry particularly hard, so a third party cell is easily feasible there.
So I don't buy that they're cell constrained on such a long timescale. They're constrained by other things.