> If I have to drive the last 1% myself, it's not a big deal. I suspect this is how most people feel.
Which is all well and good until you realize a few things:
1) that “last 1%” happens every trip at any time. You will always encounter an edge case the machine cannot handle. Period.
2) as a result you have to always pay attention in order to immediately take over
3) you can’t because you (the royal you) are three sheets to the wind plastered drunk.
Sorry. If I have to pay attention for that 1%, it ain’t full self driving. And anything that encourages you not to pay attention 100% of the time is unsafe and shouldn’t be allowed in the road. And if I have to pay attention 100% of the time in order to take over, what the fuck is the point?
Take Japanese highway system. It is well maintained, has “rest” stations where you can park car for free.
If you could get an app that can drive drunk salaryman, or not even drunk just tired from Tokyo interchange to closest rest area to wherever.. you will win. Nobody will buy a car without that who uses car for highway driving, period. It is a killer app. Get off work at 9pm Friday, get the car to the IC punch the destination, wake up at a rest are 20mins from Ski resort, Onden, parents house etc
Snow, taiphoon coming whatever. Park at closest rest area.
I am very pessimistic about cars without steering wheels. I am quite optimistic about cars that have ability to drive well marked roads. Here is a crazy thing Charge fairs for highways like Japan does, then maintain them.
The safe disengage problem is solvable to match human level outcomes. Unexpected event? Slow down, avoid obstacles, flashing lights, slowly go to a spot that's ok-ish for parking.
Yes there can be a big hole in the road anytime, the AI has to watch the vehicle in front of it, if no such vehicle then it should chose a speed that let's it evaluate road conditions for the given weather/visibility.
Vehicle coming into our lane? The AI has to match human level maneuvering to evade the incoming car. It already has much better chance given it won't panic, will be always fully alert, and will be as accurate and precise as it can.
So the big categories are sudden road/environment changes (tree falls on road, hail, mudslide, earthquake damages road, animal crosses road), other vehicles, and pedestrians/cyclists/etc.
All are manageable with inferences from the environment (weather and roadside context determine visibility and how much space there is for maneuvering, how likely are unexpected crossings - eg. deer, kids) and surrounding traffic.
Are these hard? Sure, but none require human level cognitive reasoning.
Are you are going to randomly have to park in a wedding lot? The only example you gave which might happen in the middle of a trip, the Tesla can handle just fine for long enough to pass control over to the driver.
> you can’t because you (the royal you) are three sheets to the wind plastered drunk.
It's still the driver's responsibility to drive sober. Even so, I'd far rather someone who is drunk be behind the wheel of a self driving car than otherwise.
And if you have not been doing the driving, it will take precious seconds - too long - to assess the situation and react appropriately.
Either you're driving, or you're a passenger in a car with a driver who seems reliable, but really isn't totally so. Eventually, that will become a winning bet, but when?
Which is all well and good until you realize a few things:
1) that “last 1%” happens every trip at any time. You will always encounter an edge case the machine cannot handle. Period.
2) as a result you have to always pay attention in order to immediately take over
3) you can’t because you (the royal you) are three sheets to the wind plastered drunk.
Sorry. If I have to pay attention for that 1%, it ain’t full self driving. And anything that encourages you not to pay attention 100% of the time is unsafe and shouldn’t be allowed in the road. And if I have to pay attention 100% of the time in order to take over, what the fuck is the point?