Tech is multiplying faster than the rest of the economy can deploy it. With so many options, committing to a particular framework infrastructure means opportunity costs appear to rise unusually sharply. It reminds me a bit of the MSX & Commodore computer period in the 80s, not long before the PC moved down from the business market to the consumer one.
Remember that post a month or so back about how there were too many different Android phones, and iPhone was so much nicer - there's a new one every June or July, so you don't have to worry about your shiny new Android phone feeling old hat after only 3 weeks. I don't feel that way, but I could see where he was coming from. Same thing with Facebook; the secret of its popularity is that it's fairly simple and consistent, which was also one of AOL's key selling points. Most people don't want to reconstruct their internet/computer experience on a regular basis, as demonstrated by the histrionics when many popular sites decide it's time to clean up their layout or switch to a new logo. Google's approach to this is to just be in permanent beta which I like very much, but sometimes I get frustrated at the way things seem to evolve (or slow down) on 20 different schedules.
I have felt for a year that we are approaching one of the periodic phase transitions that result in a whole new wave of growth, and that the leadup to such periods is characterized by great energy and inventiveness, but also a lack of focus and rising overhead. My gut says what's needed to progress will leverage semantic web technology, but that we're another year away from achieving the required information density which would allow it to be useful. Also, it's going to be quite C/GPU intensive, and take advantage of the fact that many modern processors are underused.
Remember that post a month or so back about how there were too many different Android phones, and iPhone was so much nicer - there's a new one every June or July, so you don't have to worry about your shiny new Android phone feeling old hat after only 3 weeks. I don't feel that way, but I could see where he was coming from. Same thing with Facebook; the secret of its popularity is that it's fairly simple and consistent, which was also one of AOL's key selling points. Most people don't want to reconstruct their internet/computer experience on a regular basis, as demonstrated by the histrionics when many popular sites decide it's time to clean up their layout or switch to a new logo. Google's approach to this is to just be in permanent beta which I like very much, but sometimes I get frustrated at the way things seem to evolve (or slow down) on 20 different schedules.
I have felt for a year that we are approaching one of the periodic phase transitions that result in a whole new wave of growth, and that the leadup to such periods is characterized by great energy and inventiveness, but also a lack of focus and rising overhead. My gut says what's needed to progress will leverage semantic web technology, but that we're another year away from achieving the required information density which would allow it to be useful. Also, it's going to be quite C/GPU intensive, and take advantage of the fact that many modern processors are underused.