I appreciate the correction from 99.9% to 97% survival rate for those under 70.
Thank you for sharing the link to the imperial college article. Here are some of my key take aways:
- 100,000's of people will still die even under ideal isolation conditions (didn't see an exact #).
- Isolation must happen until a vaccine is available (likely 12-18+ months).
- If isolation ends before a vaccine is found infections will quickly spike thus only delaying the dreaded hospital overflow.
- Best reasonable NPIs appear to be isolating 70+ and having sick people stay at home.
- The authors state there are many uncertainties in NPI policy effectiveness.
As with any complex topic, nuance and detail is important. The American populace is accepting of mass isolation for a few weeks, but what about months or years?
Do we really want to be isolated for the next 18+ months? Are we comfortable with families losing their jobs, home, and more?
Are we comfortable with the elderly losing a big chunk of their retirement investments which may not rebound before they need it?
Again, if we don't mass isolate until a vaccine is discovered, then all we're doing is wasting time and money with mass isolations.
There are lots of diseases in this world that kill people and we can't control them all. This is a normal and sad part of the circle of life. We must evaluate reasonable measures, with clear and honest public discussions (a stretch, I know).
I understand my perspective against mass isolations isn't popular, but I'm not seeing much evidence to refute it.
No, your six 9s are wrong. So far, the best quality evidence we have says: https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1239693272311828483/...
If you are aged
> If you have scientific evidence supporting mass isolation for a pandemic like covid-19 please share.https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...