> What I am trying to convey is that both numerator and denominator of the death ratio are very noisy since they depend on who and when is tested.
In this case now, you don't need that: the hospitals in Italy know for years how many new cases they get. Now it's like 50 times more cases that need hospital, and 50 times more dead.
It can't be anything but something completely new. If it's not a new virus X it must be a new virus Y as dangerous as X. But we know there is a new virus X. Old viruses simply had totally different need for hospitals:
In Italy there were 55 times more deaths per week (two weeks already) than the peek during the flu season. The same with a need for the beds in the intensive care units.
In this case now, you don't need that: the hospitals in Italy know for years how many new cases they get. Now it's like 50 times more cases that need hospital, and 50 times more dead.
It can't be anything but something completely new. If it's not a new virus X it must be a new virus Y as dangerous as X. But we know there is a new virus X. Old viruses simply had totally different need for hospitals:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Is_COVID-19_like_a_flu%3F...
In Italy there were 55 times more deaths per week (two weeks already) than the peek during the flu season. The same with a need for the beds in the intensive care units.