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> the only surefire way to hire is to bring people on temporarily and evaluate their performance in 1-3 months

In countries that have decent leave policies this might be possible for people who have jobs, but it would be expensive then and even more expensive for others. I can see myself taking a month off to go and work at Elite Company X, then going back, working out my notice, then starting the new job. But that stretchs the hiring period and makes them vulnerable to counteroffers (I can give notice to Elite Company X too).

But where I am now, no way. I can't take a month off on less than about six months notice, and right now I wouldn't get it because of the pandemic. So in the event that someone wanted to hire me, or someone senior in the US (etc), they'd have to front enough money to make it worth while quitting my current job on the off chance I might make it past the trial period.

Albeit when I was younger and jobs were much easier to get, I used to habitually negotiate salary at new jobs by saying "pay me what you want, then in three months you either start paying me what I'm asking or dump me". It is effective, sounds a bit arrogant (and not everyone likes that), and only once did someone try to negotiate after the trial period. That was a very short negotiation and they decided they'd rather keep me.



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