Yes. Costs of power sources have frequently increased as a function of penetration due to regulations, NIMBY, realities of technology, etc. You're assuming renewables will do the opposite. While popular, this is unconventional. Japan building 22 coal plants right now proves the point.
Serious studies I've seen say 30-50 $/MWh delta is required to deal with reconductoring, storage, recycling, load management, etc.
Nuclear has to standardize and serialize to play. If they don't do that they're out. But if they pull off another France of Korea or Japanese ABWRs its game on. You're also assuming that will not happen.
If you assume nuclear will never improve and other sources will, sure nuclear looks bad.
Nuclear power plants have a 60 year history now. We can see they have not come down in cost, and we can see why. They are complex and difficult to build. Mistakes in design or construction can be disastrously expensive. Avoiding those mistakes is also very expensive.
The refrain of "this time it will be different" is looking like just wishful thinking.
Now we know how to do it right. See Shika 2 abwr build in 2006. It was amazing. Problem is, we keep choosing to do it wrong. South Texas has a full-on license to build a ABWR there right now. Hitachi could show up and deliver it. But we choose to not allow it due to corporate turf issues with GE.
This is a big management and coordination challenge. But with climate change looming, what better time to choose the path we know works.
VVERs are also fully serialized.
While looking at Vogtle and Hinckley C and Finland, we must not forget VVERs and ABWRs and APR-1400s.
Serious studies I've seen say 30-50 $/MWh delta is required to deal with reconductoring, storage, recycling, load management, etc.
Nuclear has to standardize and serialize to play. If they don't do that they're out. But if they pull off another France of Korea or Japanese ABWRs its game on. You're also assuming that will not happen.
If you assume nuclear will never improve and other sources will, sure nuclear looks bad.