We don’t know when vscode will or won’t go extinct. It’s less distinct than other similar editors in comparison to emacs, so the switching cost is a lot lower. But my point being isn’t that vscode will somehow be “the great winner,” but rather that new things will come and continue to replace the old.

Emacs has/had the option of changing with the times. They’ve opted out of that. So most newcomers will opt out of emacs, and thus it’ll slowly die out.