The number of deaths for the SF Bay Area is not 58, either. It is:
San Francisco: 47
Alameda: 116
Santa Clara: 152
San Mateo: 99
Contra Costa: 50
Marin: 18
Solano: 23
In other words, about ~500 deaths. If you had 60% of the population infected, you might expect 20x that figure.
Why would it matter that California had daily flights from Wuhan? It changes the math almost by nothing. Whenever an initial seeding occurs, domestic cases rapidly and overwhelmingly takeover in spread.
Wuhan has, as of early June testing, a SARS-CoV-2 seropositive rate of approximately ~3%. There were very few infected people coming on those daily flights in January, and by February domestic spread was many orders of magnitude larger than any seeding event.
California also shutdown earlier than other states, especially in the Bay Area, where essentially all major employers implemented work from policies 7-10 days before the official Shelter-in-Place notice.
California may have had an earlier seeding, but we know for sure it was spreading domestically by mid-January in several cities around the country.
San Francisco: 47 Alameda: 116 Santa Clara: 152 San Mateo: 99 Contra Costa: 50 Marin: 18 Solano: 23
In other words, about ~500 deaths. If you had 60% of the population infected, you might expect 20x that figure.
Why would it matter that California had daily flights from Wuhan? It changes the math almost by nothing. Whenever an initial seeding occurs, domestic cases rapidly and overwhelmingly takeover in spread.
Wuhan has, as of early June testing, a SARS-CoV-2 seropositive rate of approximately ~3%. There were very few infected people coming on those daily flights in January, and by February domestic spread was many orders of magnitude larger than any seeding event.
California also shutdown earlier than other states, especially in the Bay Area, where essentially all major employers implemented work from policies 7-10 days before the official Shelter-in-Place notice.
California may have had an earlier seeding, but we know for sure it was spreading domestically by mid-January in several cities around the country.