>Still, assuming a modest annual increase at the cheap registrars it still does eventually win
I know it's not the main point of your comment, but if you're going to consider future annual increases you should also consider the net present value. If you have to pay $2000 up front and the cost of a domain stays at about ~$10/year but goes up with inflation, you'll never win. Financially, you're better off investing your $2,000 (even very conservatively) and then paying the $10/year registration fee out of your earnings while pocketing the rest (and still having your $2,000 in principal at the end).
I know it's not the main point of your comment, but if you're going to consider future annual increases you should also consider the net present value. If you have to pay $2000 up front and the cost of a domain stays at about ~$10/year but goes up with inflation, you'll never win. Financially, you're better off investing your $2,000 (even very conservatively) and then paying the $10/year registration fee out of your earnings while pocketing the rest (and still having your $2,000 in principal at the end).