> So the end of this era need not be disastrous if it prompts reforms that create more dynamic economies and representative governments.
There is no scenario where it won't be disastrous.
The most important number in the Middle East is barrels of oil (produced) per capita. That figure has been falling for decades and is reaching critical low levels (as represented by their budget situations).
What the Middle East producers have to try to do economically, is like trying to replace the landing gear on a 747 while you're hurtling down the runway. They don't just have to plot for replacing oil vs their economy today (a nearly impossible task), they have to do it and come up with enough economy to manage another 100% increase in population in the next few decades. Realistically it's impossible, it will end in catastrophe; the conflicts (including civil) will be far larger, matching the size of the population increases. As the regimes melt under the pressure, wars will spiral out from it. Neither the House of Saud nor the Iranian theocracy will survive it intact.
Here is the population expansion for some prominent OPEC members since 1970:
Saudi Arabia: 5.8m -> 34m (486%)
(Saudi's oil production hasn't gone up much in 40 years, and their population has increased by 250% in that time; a lot more mouths to feed, dramatically fewer barrels per capita)
There is no scenario where it won't be disastrous.
The most important number in the Middle East is barrels of oil (produced) per capita. That figure has been falling for decades and is reaching critical low levels (as represented by their budget situations).
What the Middle East producers have to try to do economically, is like trying to replace the landing gear on a 747 while you're hurtling down the runway. They don't just have to plot for replacing oil vs their economy today (a nearly impossible task), they have to do it and come up with enough economy to manage another 100% increase in population in the next few decades. Realistically it's impossible, it will end in catastrophe; the conflicts (including civil) will be far larger, matching the size of the population increases. As the regimes melt under the pressure, wars will spiral out from it. Neither the House of Saud nor the Iranian theocracy will survive it intact.
Here is the population expansion for some prominent OPEC members since 1970:
Saudi Arabia: 5.8m -> 34m (486%)
(Saudi's oil production hasn't gone up much in 40 years, and their population has increased by 250% in that time; a lot more mouths to feed, dramatically fewer barrels per capita)
Iraq: 10m -> 40m (300%)
Iran: 28m -> 84m (200%)
Egypt: 34m -> 100m (194%)
Oman: 700k -> 5m (614%)
Kuwait: 750k -> 4m (433%)
Libya: 2m -> 6.6m (230%)
Sudan: 10m -> 42m (320%)
Algeria: 14m -> 44m (214%)