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> Imagine life with no kids

People will still be able to have kids. In fact in many cases people will be able to have as many kids as they normally would. As long as the fertility rate is less than 2 children/woman, the total population will still converge even if no one dies. Places like South Korean have a fertility rate of 1 c/w, which would produce a mere doubling of the total population.



This is correct. For example: Let's say the population is P and the net reproduction rate (the number of daughters a woman has in her lifetime) is 0.9. The next generation would have 0.9P people, the next one would have 0.9², then 0.9³, etc. Even with immortality you would get lim_(i→∞)∑ᵢ0.9ⁱP = 9P. So as long as the net reproduction rate is less than one the population stabilises at a finite number even if everyone is immortal.


> As long as the fertility rate is less than 2 children/woman, the total population will still converge even if no one dies.

Converge to what? How?


I think they mean the infinite sequence of

Σ (generation_n)

always converges to some finite number when generation_(n+1) = k * generation_n has k < 1, which is equivalent to <2 immortal children per woman.

I don’t think that’s a good model, as people who want more offspring will out-reproduce those who don’t, but that’s an argument for another time.


> I don’t think that’s a good model, as people who want more offspring will out-reproduce those who don’t, but that’s an argument for another time.

This argument assumes the offspring behaves in the same way as their parents. I don't see that necessarily being true. Even if that is the case, there are legislative solutions.


To population 0. 1.9 children / woman is a .95 multiplier on human population per generation, like a -5% interest rate. Assuming birth rate is constant < 2, it converges to 0.


Not "if no one dies" which was part of GGP's claim.


Correct, my mistake. Other comments with summations are the accurate convergence then.




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