I see batteries not getting much cheaper at all, and likely hitting some plateau in cost reductions. It wouldn't surprise me if it is followed by cost increases as demands for sustainable production and recyclability increase.
Hydrogen is not just cheaper than batteries, but fundamentally cheaper in a way that batteries can never match. For instance, underground storage is at the cents per kWh of storage. So batteries can never get there. In 20 years, I suspect FCEVs will have taken over, with BEVs mostly abandoned as being too expensive to justify their existence in most circumstances.
Fundamentally I agree that FC storage can be very cheap. Just a metal tank with some valves or whatever, right?
a) What stops the fundamentals of batteries from also continuing to get cheaper? Current batteries are using less of some expensive metals, is there some kind of law that is going to make us hit a wall at current battery pricing? I don't see this yet, nor have I seen research papers, but I may have just missed them?
b) The way I understand it, is the cost of creating the Hydrogen is the expensive part now. Is there proof that it will be cheaper with time, and that the end state of producing hydrogen is cheaper than the end state of producing batteries?
You need a lot of metal, especially if you want a big battery. Realistically we're not going to see batteries much cheaper than what we have now.
Hydrogen is likely to be cost of green energy plus some additional cost factor. So if solar is $0.02/kWh, then hydrogen will be maybe 2x that in the very long run. Everything points to hydrogen eventually getting to around $1/kg, or cheaper than just about any other kind of fuel.
Hydrogen is not just cheaper than batteries, but fundamentally cheaper in a way that batteries can never match. For instance, underground storage is at the cents per kWh of storage. So batteries can never get there. In 20 years, I suspect FCEVs will have taken over, with BEVs mostly abandoned as being too expensive to justify their existence in most circumstances.