Is there a point? 538 showed Trump having a 1 in 4 chance of winning the election on the day of the election. Flipping a coin twice and getting two heads is not particularly surprising.
538 is showing Trump of having a 1 in 5 chance of winning 2020: not favored but very possible. But if you dig deeper, the main reason that his odds are that high is that there's lots of time for stuff to happen between now and November 4th. If the election were to be held today the odds would be 1 in 19 for Trump.
edit: rereading it sounds like I'm discrediting the 1 in 5 forecast. Not at all, I think they're right about the 1 in 5. There are two main reasons to go from 1 in 19 to 1 in 5:
- future unknown events. Like Comey in 2016. Some of these events will help Biden and some Trump, but if they're random they will pull the odds toward the middle.
- when asked who would better handle the economy, Trump has the lead over Biden. Elections have always been about the economy, but 2020 hasn't been so far. Reversion to the norm is always a good guess.
I'm badly summarizing 538 in my comments, this is not original thought.
Not sure what your saying. But if your saying they got it wrong they gave trump a 25+% of winning. Things with a 1/4th probability happen all the time.
