Until they figure out satellite-to-satellite, starlink will be still limited by having an earth station visible underneath the satellite simultaneously in the same general region as the CPEs. It's all "moving bent pipe" right now. Same architectural limitation as why the original Globalstar LEO network for handheld satellite phones was never able to offer truly "global" coverage, unlike Iridium.
It will be quite some time before Starlink is usable in the middle of the Pacific ocean. I don't think it will kill Inmarsat immediately for maritime and aviation applications. But I am also glad I don't own an of their stock (I also own no stock in any geostationary satellite owner/operator).
I think Musk will deliver. May take another 5 years. Sure we'll still be buying older kit like vsats for a year or two after that too, but it isn't going to be growing.
You're right about GEO market -- it's more than just IP. We have an old UKI doing probably it's last event this weekend (delayed due to covid). The replacement doesn't have a dish. Started decommissioning a truck with a vsat today -- replacement is 4g/5g only. The traditional non-IP market is shrinking even without starlink.
The biggest risk to starlink I suspect would be Musk dying. He seems to have the ability to defy naysayers and change industries.
OTOH, there's a good chance that the many engineers and scientists at SpaceX, working under Gwynne Shotwell, will deliver something viable.
Stop giving Musk credit for the things he didn't do. His death won't affect the viability of Starlink, and if anything, it would likely improve the final product. SpaceX's successes and failures are generally inversely proportional to the attention Musks puts into running the company; i.e., SpaceX's success is inversely proportional to his micromanaging and meddling.
I agree it will be some time, but even if they never get sat to sat links they can solve the Pacific ocean problem via relays on ships - it wouldn't take that many.
Those are already signed up for Iridium and Inmarsat. They've already got equipment and SpaceX might not be so economical in short term.
SpaceX would be great for recreational sailors, cruisers and liveaboards. That's market of less than a million clients (if that), compared to billions in rural population. It's not even clear current gen antenna would work on small craft.
It will be quite some time before Starlink is usable in the middle of the Pacific ocean. I don't think it will kill Inmarsat immediately for maritime and aviation applications. But I am also glad I don't own an of their stock (I also own no stock in any geostationary satellite owner/operator).