I will take your bet. No way full self-driving is coming and no way Waymo will deliver a self-driving taxi in 5 years that will compete with a driver based taxi. I can see Waymo or the like picking gimmicky routes like Las Vegas airport to select hotels/stops or another easy route in an area without rain.
I don't mean the self-driving meaning that keeps getting reinvented every couple years to kick the can down the road. I mean the car is driving itself without a driver or remote driver in the majority of circumstances such as a rainstorm.
They specifically choose states close to the West Coast because the climates do not have serious weather or rain. Nevada, California, Arizona etc. SF is a weird city compared to other places with hills and odd obstructions so a lot of them moved to Phoenix for testing. From an outsider, the regulatory environment in Arizona appears to be easier for companies that want to do this type of testing as opposed to highly regulated California.
You're moving the goal posts. The Chandler Waymo service is entirely driverless and not on a fixed route, with expanded service coming next year and additional cities opening up in 2022-2023. I encourage you to read up on Waymo's progress - it's quite a bit farther along than most people think.
I don't mean the self-driving meaning that keeps getting reinvented every couple years to kick the can down the road. I mean the car is driving itself without a driver or remote driver in the majority of circumstances such as a rainstorm.