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Bingo. Pollsters can’t say for certain who a declined invitation plans to vote doe.



And more specifically in a contemporary US context, its likely non-respondents lean Trump (his messaging and base is much more critical of polling and media in general). Whilst pollsters are not unaware of this and can factor it into weightings to some extent, they don't have any data to work with in figuring out whether this cohort is more likely to turn out than previous elections.




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