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The number of startups that IPO and 2x or better is strictly less than the number that even make it to IPO. The 10 year window is certainly better than 90 days, but options just increase your chance of being a bagholder.

In the case of an acquisition, options also can screw you. In my view, it’s always better to have either shares or equity most comparable to what the founders have. Be ready to sell early at any time.



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