You seem to be making a few statements based on gut feeling instead of hard numbers. While I also think (opinion, I have no facts to back it) that being outside is safer than staying indoors, I don't think organizing an event is safe.
I mean the Netherlands got their first major outbreak thanks to carnaval last year, which is a partially outdoor event. Another one, in the US, the Sturgis motorcycle rally created a big wave in spreading the 'rona (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6947e1.htm)
> I cannot imagine anyone catching covid while traveling at 40 km/h over the ice.
The big issue isn't the skating itself, but the logistics at start/finish and the stempelposten with its congestion, as well as the 1 to 1.5 million spectators over a course of 200 km with their parties and alcohol consumption, and the logistics to get everyone there and back (full trains and busses).
> It’s basically impossible to get outside in the first place (unless you are standing mouth to mouth with someone).
> We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases. The first salient feature of the 318 identified outbreaks that involved three or more cases is that they all occurred in indoor environments.
> A database of more than 20,000 cases (including the 7,324 Chinese cases) found 461 that were associated with transmission in completely outdoor environments — predominantly crowded events like markets and rallies. (emphasis mine)
Your points about attendant risks are probably true though. People will definitely congregate to drink beer and eat soup, and we’ll have another carnival on our hands :/
It’s basically impossible to get outside in the first place (unless you are standing mouth to mouth with someone).