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It wouldn't be equally likely since the lab is a single source. It's normal for caves and pig farms and such to spread diseases like this - usually it's new kinds of flu but sometimes it's worse.

To me it seems like the lab escape story has only developed because of journalist brain. It's convenient if you'll only accept a narrative that involves blaming a human and not a natural system.

Anyway, the story doesn't seem to be developing in that direction:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/14/health/who-mission-china-intl...

I like how the WHO investigator calls the original patient "dull and normal".



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