> Land-only taxes may have been an interesting idea in the 19th century, but they aren’t relevant to a modern economy.
This is basically saying real estate isn't relevant to a modern economy for tax policy. Broadly true in 19th century United Kingdom in the midst of the Industrial Revolution [1]. Disputed by many millionaires today in the US [2]. Another way to track the relative weighting of land in wealthy portfolios is by aggregate measures.
The wealth of the US 1% grew 2.22X from 2005-2020 [3]. During the same period, the value of land held by the US 1% grew from $3,176,274 million to $4,607,729 million, 1.45X [4]. Not a proportional tracking of wealth increase, but I wouldn't call it "not relevant"; this is hardly rounding error territory where I would dismiss it for tax policy purposes. The sample period is also during an ahistorical secular trend when held across decades when securities were and are quite strong compared to real estate assets, so I don't know what a broader and more granular analysis would reveal, but my cursory glance across a one-generation span would make me hesitate to strongly take the "aren't relevant to a modern economy" position with our current set of policies.
The global urban real estate market so severely punishing younger generations for so long with such high prices relative to income and income precarity indicates some severe secular rent-seeking / gatekeeping taking place at an ahistorically wide scale, scope and duration. I have no dog in that hunt; I was purely lucky by timing to not live in that cohort, but I share their hostility to the status quo. If you favor the "modern economy making real estate not relevant" position, then tax, monetary, finance, social and industrial policies like LVT (though LVT is not without its challenges [5] [6]) that disincentivize such rent-seeking and favor a more efficient allocation of limited capital away from real estate towards such modern industries would be welcome, to the point that aggregate measures show little to no correlation between wealth concentration and real estate instead of our current situation.
I'm personally in favor of more metropolitan transit authorities consciously and deliberately using public transportation corridors as part and parcel of an explicit industrial policy that drives down residential costs over time. Residential development is planned more along Singaporean public housing lines with a goal of ever-decreasing DTI ratios (possible with more modern construction techniques like Lstiburek'ean Perfect Walls and Passive Net Zero in structures that last centuries, and co-operative financial organizational structures), than open market operations in the US. This doesn't have to come at the expense of open market operations; they're free to syndicate their own transit networks and monetize those networks. I'm advocating the free market advocates in US real estate becoming even stronger in the global market by practicing true free markets instead of relying upon the crutches of publicly-funded infrastructure to break the capital ground in front of them.
This is basically saying real estate isn't relevant to a modern economy for tax policy. Broadly true in 19th century United Kingdom in the midst of the Industrial Revolution [1]. Disputed by many millionaires today in the US [2]. Another way to track the relative weighting of land in wealthy portfolios is by aggregate measures.
The wealth of the US 1% grew 2.22X from 2005-2020 [3]. During the same period, the value of land held by the US 1% grew from $3,176,274 million to $4,607,729 million, 1.45X [4]. Not a proportional tracking of wealth increase, but I wouldn't call it "not relevant"; this is hardly rounding error territory where I would dismiss it for tax policy purposes. The sample period is also during an ahistorical secular trend when held across decades when securities were and are quite strong compared to real estate assets, so I don't know what a broader and more granular analysis would reveal, but my cursory glance across a one-generation span would make me hesitate to strongly take the "aren't relevant to a modern economy" position with our current set of policies.
The global urban real estate market so severely punishing younger generations for so long with such high prices relative to income and income precarity indicates some severe secular rent-seeking / gatekeeping taking place at an ahistorically wide scale, scope and duration. I have no dog in that hunt; I was purely lucky by timing to not live in that cohort, but I share their hostility to the status quo. If you favor the "modern economy making real estate not relevant" position, then tax, monetary, finance, social and industrial policies like LVT (though LVT is not without its challenges [5] [6]) that disincentivize such rent-seeking and favor a more efficient allocation of limited capital away from real estate towards such modern industries would be welcome, to the point that aggregate measures show little to no correlation between wealth concentration and real estate instead of our current situation.
I'm personally in favor of more metropolitan transit authorities consciously and deliberately using public transportation corridors as part and parcel of an explicit industrial policy that drives down residential costs over time. Residential development is planned more along Singaporean public housing lines with a goal of ever-decreasing DTI ratios (possible with more modern construction techniques like Lstiburek'ean Perfect Walls and Passive Net Zero in structures that last centuries, and co-operative financial organizational structures), than open market operations in the US. This doesn't have to come at the expense of open market operations; they're free to syndicate their own transit networks and monetize those networks. I'm advocating the free market advocates in US real estate becoming even stronger in the global market by practicing true free markets instead of relying upon the crutches of publicly-funded infrastructure to break the capital ground in front of them.
[1] https://www.hbs.edu/ris/Publication%20Files/Land_e202c898-eb...
[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/01/real-estate-is-still-the-bes...
[3] https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/dataviz/dfa/distr...
[4] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WFRBLT01002
[5] https://www.lincolninst.edu/publications/articles/land-value...
[6] https://www.lincolninst.edu/sites/default/files/pubfiles/ass...