India offers no counterweight in the next few decades. They offer considerable further weight, that much is true.
As you note, they're running decades behind. There's some hope that the West & Co. can bolster India, accelerate their ability to help stand up to China in the region. The US will need all the help it can get, as it will be unable to continue to serve that role on its own. When the US was 10 to 1 or 5 to 1 vs China, as in the past (1970-2005), it was still not an easy task to wrestle with them; when the US is 1 to 1 vs China (and in their backyard), forget about it.
It's just an incredible gap for India though. By the time India gets to $5 trillion in GDP (from $3t now), China will be up at $22-$23 trillion or so, and far larger than the EU. The US adds an economy the size of Japan or Germany every seven or eight years and it's still not enough to counter China.
India realistically can't help any more than Japan does. It's a modest push-back potential, some limited regional containment. China does at least value having a veneer of global respect. All authoritarian systems want others to pretend they're moral, to pretend that they deserve respect. They always crave that. That's why the USSR and North Korea always wanted recognition from the US, they crave that fake uneared stature, which they can earn no other way with their type of system (systems that rule solely through extreme violence and force, rather than through any manner of democracy and human rights).
Besides all the economic matters, nobody is going to full-on war with China, and that includes India. I just don't see what significant difference India makes, unless we're talking about the year 2070. Certainly it's far better to have India as added weight on the scales, but it still doesn't matter in terms of altering China's thinking or behavior. The other problem, is that India really can't offer much assistance in restraining China in the Asia Pacific region, which is where most of China's more serious ambitions are in the next few decades.
As you note, they're running decades behind. There's some hope that the West & Co. can bolster India, accelerate their ability to help stand up to China in the region. The US will need all the help it can get, as it will be unable to continue to serve that role on its own. When the US was 10 to 1 or 5 to 1 vs China, as in the past (1970-2005), it was still not an easy task to wrestle with them; when the US is 1 to 1 vs China (and in their backyard), forget about it.
It's just an incredible gap for India though. By the time India gets to $5 trillion in GDP (from $3t now), China will be up at $22-$23 trillion or so, and far larger than the EU. The US adds an economy the size of Japan or Germany every seven or eight years and it's still not enough to counter China.
India realistically can't help any more than Japan does. It's a modest push-back potential, some limited regional containment. China does at least value having a veneer of global respect. All authoritarian systems want others to pretend they're moral, to pretend that they deserve respect. They always crave that. That's why the USSR and North Korea always wanted recognition from the US, they crave that fake uneared stature, which they can earn no other way with their type of system (systems that rule solely through extreme violence and force, rather than through any manner of democracy and human rights).
Besides all the economic matters, nobody is going to full-on war with China, and that includes India. I just don't see what significant difference India makes, unless we're talking about the year 2070. Certainly it's far better to have India as added weight on the scales, but it still doesn't matter in terms of altering China's thinking or behavior. The other problem, is that India really can't offer much assistance in restraining China in the Asia Pacific region, which is where most of China's more serious ambitions are in the next few decades.