She was at least 40km alone in the wind. There she needed 20-30% more energy then the riders in the peleton. So this was a incredible performance while the peleton calculated wrong.

And she was in the wind regularly (in a small group of 3) for the other 100km. Incredible.

all that TT training really paid off!

If you're losing then it's a good idea to take actions that increase the variance of the possible outcomes.

Exactly, she was one of many underdog competitors, best bet for her is not a good one, but it can work, get in a break and hope for screw ups behind. That doesn't get you a win very often, but its not very rare either.

Road cycling is one of the sports where giving luck room to happen is a perfectly legitimate part of the game. Did others have a better hand? Maybe, but they failed to play it.